As Bitcoin enthusiasts eagerly speculate on the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory toward the end of 2025, one Bitcoin analyst warns that many traders misinterpret the fundamentals of statistical probability when predicting a Q4 price surge.
In recent discussions, several analysts have suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach new cycle-high prices by the close of this year. However, PlanC, a respected Bitcoin analyst, challenged this view, cautioning that relying on previous market cycles could be a flawed approach.
“Anyone predicting that Bitcoin must peak in Q4 of this year is misinterpreting statistics and probability,” PlanC stated in a recent post on X. He likened such a forecast to flipping a coin, landing tails three times in a row, and then betting that the fourth flip must also be tails. The analogy emphasizes that past halving cycles do not provide sufficient data to make such a confident prediction.
The Halving Cycle Debate
In support of his argument, PlanC pointed out that the halving cycle a key historical factor often linked to Bitcoin’s price increases — may no longer be a reliable indicator. This assertion comes amid ongoing industry discussions about the diminishing relevance of halving events, particularly as Bitcoin treasury companies grow and significant inflows pour into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“The belief that Bitcoin’s price must peak in Q4, driven by the halving cycle, is more of a psychological and self-fulfilling prophecy than a fundamental certainty,” PlanC explained. While Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s best-performing quarter, with an average return of 85.42% since 2013, this is not necessarily a guarantee of a repeat performance.
Could Bitcoin Experience a Downturn Before 2026?
Despite the optimism surrounding the potential for Q4 gains, some analysts suggest Bitcoin may be on the verge of entering a downtrend, particularly if the halving cycle continues to play out. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin could see a decline as soon as October, a factor that traders must keep in mind.
The debate among Bitcoin traders is intensifying, with opinions split on whether the bull market will continue into 2026. On August 17, Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, stated that there is “greater than a 50% chance” Bitcoin could reach a price range of $140,000 to $150,000 by the end of this year before transitioning into another bear market.
Meanwhile, others believe the upward momentum will stretch beyond 2025. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, expressed confidence in July that 2026 would likely be another bullish year for Bitcoin.
The $250,000 Question
Meanwhile, a few analysts are making even bolder predictions. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggested in April 2025 that Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by the end of the year. Just a month later, Joe Burnett, Director of Unchained Market Research, echoed this prediction, further fueling speculation about Bitcoin’s potential to achieve unprecedented highs.
In a market driven by intense speculation and shifting trends, one thing is certain: predictions about Bitcoin’s price movement remain as volatile as the cryptocurrency itself. Whether Q4 will indeed deliver a price peak or whether the long-term outlook points toward continued growth into 2026 is anyone’s guess. But as the debate continues, it’s clear that traders will need to keep a sharp eye on the data, beyond just the cycles of the past.